Bitcoin slides back to $80k, year‑end $100k odds fall to 17%

Bitcoin fell from a peak above $87,000 to around $80,000, ending October down nearly 4% – its weakest month since June. ## What Happened The rally that lifted Bitcoin over $87,000 earlier this summer lost steam, with the price dipping below $80,000 on several occasions. Prediction‑market exchange Polymarket now puts the chance of hitting $100,000 by year‑end at 17% and a $110,000 breakout at just 9%. Investors have been selling into the rally to break even; Glassnode notes that buyers who entered in the past two years need $87,000 or higher to cover costs, and those investors have pushed the price down twice this year, each time triggering a sell‑off of about a quarter. ## Reaction Researchers at Glassnode flag $81,500 as a key resistance, estimating it as the average cost basis for ETF holders. A break below that level would leave most ETF investors in loss and strip the nearest on‑chain support. Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, calls Bitcoin a “beta to the tech industry” and says AI valuation worries and debt concerns have nudged it back to the middle of its range. Daniel Reis‑Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, says he remains cautious about a new bull run. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, argues that a recent Fed rate hike did not knock Bitcoin as before and that a clear long‑term trend, not short‑term swings, is needed to call it a bull market. ## Context Bitcoin’s price is now more linked to broader macro factors, with its correlation to the stock market hitting the highest level since May, and inflation data and headlines about the Iran conflict adding further pressure.